Nuclear Arms, the Budget and the Economy
Nuclear Arms, the Budget and the Economy
h mltly irrtinl nd mindlssly dstrutiv ntur f nulr rms r is wll knwn. ut it ls invlvs mjr sltin in nditur, rtiulrly n dlivry systms, th mmnd, ntrl, mmunitins nd intllign (3I) systms nd n thr itms rltd t it. hrfr, nulr wns us substntil divrsin f rsurs wy frm rdutiv nd silly imrtnt uss. Wht is vn wrs is tht suh ubli nditur is rrly n nd liit; it tnds t b qu nd uhd in sry. h lk f trnsrny -- vn in nmi/finnil trms -- whih is inhrnt in suh wns rgrmms is fundmntlly ntithtil t dmry.
h st f th nulr wn itslf my nt b vry high; hwvr th st f th systm s whl is vry high. h US, ftr rguing tht nulr wns wr hr tin, snt fur trillin dllrs n th nulr wns, its dlivry nd its 3I systms in th lst fifty yrs. nly 10%($375 bilin) f this st wnt twrds th st f th wns thmslvs, th rst ws th dlivry systms ($2 trillin), 3I systm ($1 trillin), t. hus, whn rgumnts r dvnd rgrding th lw st f nulr wns, wht is sught t b hiddn frm ubli viw is tht th st f th bmb is nt th min st f nulr wns rgrm. It is in this light tht w must min th st f th nulr wns rgrm in this untry.
h 98-99 udgt
h ltst udgt just rsntd by th J gvrnmnt, ftr th nulr lsins, invlvs 14 r nt inrs in th dfn budgt vr lst yr`s rvisd stimts. his mriss n inrs f Rs. 4038 rr in rvnu nditur nd Rs. 1063 in itl nditur. h gvrnmnt hs rgud tht mst f this inrs will g twrds inrsd slris s rsult f y mmissin wrds. ut if st rti is ny guid, th liklihd is tht th mr substntil inrss in nditur tht r ssitd with nulr rgrmm, nd silly with nulr wnistin, r nt liitly dfind s bing undr th dfn budgt, but r ut undr vrius diffrnt udgt hds s wll s in ff-udgt itms suh s th rsurs/nditur f rtin ubli str ntrriss whs rdutin is in rltd rs. h nly liit inrss in budgtry nditur whih rflt th nulr rgrmm r in th utlys fr th Drtmnt f tmi nrgy ( 59 r nt inrs, frm Rs. 987 rr t Rs. 1569 rr) nd in th Drtmnt f S ( 62 r nt inrs, frm Rs. 850 rr t Rs. 1381 rr), whih r nt rt f th sttd Dfn udgt.
ut sm f ths numbrs in rstiv, it is wrth mring thm with sm thr itms f ntrl Gvrnmnt nditur. hus, th ttl utly fr th inistry f lth nd Fmily Wlfr in th 1998-99 udgt is ut t nly Rs. 3684 rr, wll blw just th inrs in dfn nditur. h inrs in lltin t th Drtmnts f S nd tmi nrgy ln (t Rs. 1366 rr) is mr thn 5 tims grtr thn th inrs in th utly fr hlth, 52 r nt highr thn th inrs in th ntrl dutin utly, 72 r nt highr thn th inrs in lltin fr rurl mlymnt nd vrty llvitin. his rflts nly th ti f th ibrg f th tntil sts f wnistin rgrmm, s tht th sl f nsqunt divrsin f rsurs n nly b gussd t.
rding t Indir Gndhi (1981), th st f mking n intr-ntinntl bllsti missil is 340,000 rimry shls r 65,000 hlth r ntrs. ur riritis r n lngr shls nd hlth r ntrs; tht is why th inisty f umn Rsur Dvlmnt (RD) is lking t ding wy with nstitutinl gurnts rgrding dutin. h stt n n lngr dut th l; it hs t mk nulr wns!
h st f th Nulr Wns rgrm
fr w ntr int gusstimt f Indi`s nulr rgrm, rtin bsrvtins r in rdr. h st f th wns rgrm tht hs lrdy bn undrtkn -- th fissil stkil built -- hs lrdy bn id fr undr th nulr wr rgrm. his mks it diffiult t srt th sts f th wns rgrm frm tht f th wr rgrm. h tmi nrgy mmissin n ly with ths figurs t shw lwr st r bmb nd bsrb th rst in th wr rgrm. Similrly, th st f th missil rgrm n ls b undrwrittn by th stllit lunh vhil rgrm f Indin S Rsrh rgnistin (ISR). hs r nt mr njturs. It is wll knwn tht this hs bn th mthd tht Indi hs fllwd t dvl its nulr nd missil bilitis in whih th ivilin rgrm hs bn usd t undrwrit th militry rgrm. Furthr, thr r thr trnsfrs tht hv bn md in th st t hid th tru dfn sts -- trnsfrs t ubli str undrtkings, t.
h fw rvius inditins f th sts f rting nd dlying nulr wns suggst tht suh sts wuld b muh highr thn th sts urrntly bing bndid but. study by th inistry f Dfn in 1985 stimtd th st f rting nulr wns whih uld b dlyd t Rs. 7,000 rr t tht tim. In trms f th dmsti rt f infltin, suh n munt wuld m t rund Rs. 18,000 rr in urrnt ris. ut substntil rt f th nditur wuld invlv imrts, s if th hng in ru vlu (rltiv t th US dllr) is tkn int unt, thn this munts t Rs. 24,000 rr. If it is stimtd tht rund n- third f suh nditur invlvs imrts, thn th likly urrnt st wrks ut t t lst Rs. 20,000 rr. his rlts t th ttl stk st f nulr wnistin rgrmm. It shuld b ntd tht th mjr st f dlymnt f nulr rms is untd fr by nn-nulr missil mnnts, 3I t., nd ls tht vry lrg rrtin f suh hrdwr tnds t b imrtd.
his rfrs t th stk st f rting nulr rsnl. hr is ls ntinuing st invlvd in mintining rdibl nulr dtrrnt. n stimt md by dmirl Nyyr fur yrs g uts this t 0.5 t 1 r nt f GD, r t rund Rs 8,000 t Rs 16,000 rr. It shuld b ntd tht nulr wns rgrmm is nvr substitut but lwys in dditin t nn-nulr dfn nditur. hus ll f ths r dditinl nditurs. It is vidnt tht suh inrss in dfn nditur hv nt bn fully inrrtd int th udgt, vn unting fr th fts f ity nd vr-u. S if th gvrnmnt ds did t g in fr wnistin, suh sts will thn sht u. In vr ll trms, w r thn lking t dfn budgt f tlst 4% f th GD (if ll hiddn sts r tkn int unt), lrg rtin f whih will b in frign hng. It my b ntd tht th bln f ymnts risis tht Indi hd in 1991 ws th dirt rsult f inrsd dfn nditur whih wnt ut 4% f GD undr Rjiv Gndhi.
igh ilitry Rsrh nd Dvlmnt nditur
rt frm th st fr dfn s shwn in th budgt, Indi hs vry high R&D nditur fr th militry. hugh lrg rt f this nditur n b qustind rgrding its utility -- th Light mbt irrft (L) rjt, th in ttl nk () bing sm mls -- mjr rt f this nditur tdy is rltd t dvling missil nd thr dlivry systms. h thr dlivry systms inlud ls th dsign nd dvlmnt f nulr submrins nd th s-bsd missils -- th Sgrik. DRD, whih is th ndl gny fr ll dfn rsrh t th tul bmb dvlmnt hs itl budgt f Rs.700 rr fr 98-99. h ttl snding in 96-97 f DRD ws Rs.1,700 rr. Indi hs n f th highst st militry R&D nditur s rntg f ttl militry nditur -- 6.5%. nly fur untris snd mr n rsrh s rntg f thir ttl militry nditur.
Indi ls snds th mjr rt f its R&D budgt (68.5%) in Sin nd hnlgy (S&) nly n dfn rltd rs: nulr, s nd dirt militry R&D. nly US snds highr frtin f its S& snding n dfn.
Nulr `Surity` nd nmi Slvry: th J Swdshi
h mst imrtnt nmi st f ths rgrmm f nulr wnistin my nt b rrsntd simly in th divrsin f vlubl rsurs whih it ntils. It hs ls invlvd situtin whr th gvrnmnt, hving fld its militry musls, is nw nius t lt frign gvrnmnts nd intrntinl itl by ffring nmi nssins, thrugh grtr librlistin, grtr inntivs fr frign invstrs nd ffring th rtunity t ntr tiv Indin mrkts nd buy u dmsti ssts hly. h Gvrnmnt hs lrdy bn rguing tht thy will nti rivt itl t mt th sntins. his will hv th `bnfit` f rting stk in th US businss mmunity ginst sntins. lrdy, untr gurnts t wr rjts, il nd mining nssins hv bn giv s rt f this liy. h J Gvrnmnt hs ls inditd tht it is ging t llw frign insurn mnis t ntr Indi s rt f kg dl t lift sntins. Wht thr msurs r invlvd in suh kg is nt knwn, but in ll liklihd, it will mn furthr nssins in W, rtiulrly llwing frign invstmnts undr th nw ultiltrl grmnt n Invstmnt rsls tht US nd thr dvnd untris hv bn ushing nd in hngs t th tnt t.
his is th mst dngrus th f ll fr th untry, fr it imlis dubl wst f ur rsurs nd ur tntil, nd rts irrvbl hngs whih will truly mrmis ur ntinl svrignty nd surity. Slf-rlin nd svrignty r rntly rstritd t nly nulr wns in J`s lin. Surrndring nmi svrignty nd sbtging Indin thnlgy in ll thr rs t militry is J`s nwst vrsin f `Swdshi` -- th `Swdshi` bmb nd `Vidshi` vrything ls. h rtinnt qustin t sk is if w surrndr nmi svrignty, wht is th surity tht w hv gind?
rrd s drft fr disussin in IND, vmnt in Indi fr Nulr Disrmmnt

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.: 17.12.02
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