Alexander SAVOYSKY CYCLICITY in the EVOLUTION of MANKIND and in the SYSTEM of INTERNATIONAL RELATIONSНазад
Alexander SAVOYSKY CYCLICITY in the EVOLUTION of MANKIND and in the SYSTEM of INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
First talks about the unity of order, harmony and beauty date back to the Antiquity. In the VI-V centuries BC, Pythagoras combined these concepts under a single word "cosmos" to refer to creation and the Universe. Since then, it was believed that all real things in life shaped must be shaped and explained in the image and likeness of the already existing phenomena and concepts. Indeed, being influenced by the energy of light, sound and electromagnetic waves, Cosmos, Nature and Society evolve at different paces, yet interconnected.
However, the issue of the inseparable connection that modern Society has with Nature and Cosmos, as well as the technology of predicting international relations, have not been properly elaborated in the foreign and domestic theories on the world politics of the XX-XXI centuries. In the setting of deepening global crisis (political, economic, monetary and financial, social, military, cultural, informational and sporting) the objective need for theoretical comprehension of the evolution of Mankind and the system of international relations has significantly increased.
There are numerous publications in Russia and in the West dedicated to the phenomenon of cyclicity in the history of the world. At the present stage, both Russian and international political science experience a shortage of the empirical studies supported by exact sciences, logic, and disciplines allied to political science. The development of technology for building complex political and economic systems and models that are distinct in form, as well as the substantiation of theoretical propositions and practical recommendations, are still at the stage of intentions and declaration of necessity. This opinion is shared by many contemporary politicians and theorists of international relations, including our native politologists I.N.Timofeev and D.M.Feldman.
Russian and foreign political scientists and experts speak more often about the responsibility of the world powers for the stability in the world and believe that the political elites are rather embarrassed about further development of the architecture of the international order. In the absence of political initiatives and constructive projects, the global crisis continues to deepen, while the model of universal welfare in a democratic world has collapsed. A concrete question, and nothing less than rhetorical, has arisen in recent times: who will take the responsibility for further progress of civilization - the world`s elite or the United Nations as the Secretariat of the world community?
It is amazing: how much our remote ancestors knew
For real, recorded observations of the evolution of Mankind and the system of international relations started only in the 1st quarter of the XIV century, by the year of 1324. Earlier, chronological differences between Christian and Muslim calendars were observed. Christians were documenting events in conformity with the Sun, the source of life for every living thing on Earth, whereas Muslims - in conformity with the Moon. The lunisolar calendar that existed in Russia was known as Mirotvorny (Peacemaking) circle. The cyclic system of time tracking represented the information on all days of the week, month and year. Such a calendar included the data of three time cycles at once, in accordance with the movements of the Sun and the Moon. Those were lunar, solar and lunar-solar cycles. In the lunar calendar, the duration of a month and a year was correlated only with the cycles of the Moon, in the solar calendar - only with the cycles of the Sun, while the lunar-solar calendar allowed for considering the cycles of the Sun and the Moon simultaneously.
Some existing records testify that synchronization, as coincidence of solar and lunar calendars, took place on March 3, 1321 .
Solar months, as it is known, consist of 30 or 31 days, and only February has 28 days, which once in 4 years, in a leap year, become 29. Solar activity cycle lasts for about 11 years. This is known as Solar age. Every 11 years on average, the shift in the northern and southern magnetic poles of the Sun takes place. The period of high electromagnetic radiation comes in, which negatively affects the physical condition and consciousness of sensitive people.
There are about 29.5 days in the synodic month, only 354 days in the lunar year, and the lunar century consists of 18 years and 7 months (18.6 years). The lunar century is a cycle of lunar nodes - the intersection points between the orbits of the Moon and the Earth - when the lunar nodes make a full turn over the ecliptic.
The lunisolar calendar based on the Metonic cycle contains the cycle period of 19 solar years, which corresponds to 235 synodic months: 12 years of 12 months and 7 years of 13 months. Additional months are inserted in the 3, 6, 8, 11, 14, 17 and 19th years of the 19-year cycle. There are 125 "full" months of 30 days, while the remaining 110 months are "void" - they consist of 29 days. Thus, every 19 years of the lunar-solar cycle are completed on the same day (the difference between 19 solar years and 235 synodic months makes less than 1.5 hours).
As it is known, the Sun affects the consciousness of the people, while the Moon - the subconscious. When the passages of solar and lunar cycles coincide, the consciousness of Mankind expands and becomes more receptive to wise decisions of politicians aimed at improving the situation on the international scene.
Some more facts should be taken into account. First, the pattern array in a year, with certain dates matching certain days of the week, recurs in the solar calendar every 28 years: in leap years - once in 28 years, in non-leap years - 3 times with the periodicity of 6-11-11, or 11-6-11, or 11-11-6 years.
Second, the planet Earth revolves around the Sun in an elliptic orbit. At the same time, the Solar system is moving in a helical trajectory relative to the center of the Milky Way Galaxy, and the Milky Way is also rotating in the Universe helically.
Third, the Solar System, the Milky Way Galaxy and the entire Universe are in constant motion.
Reflections on the Moon and the Sun in the XXI century
Information on the solar, lunar and lunisolar calendars should not be neglected at all. It is even required to apply this information to the international life events. The Moon has a huge impact on the Earth, supports its steadiness and safeguards stability. Being a constant satellite of the Earth, the Moon acts as the driving force in the terrestrial tides and other phenomena associated with Time. Within 24 hours, the Earth makes one turn around its own axis counterclockwise (from the West to the East), and in 365 days and 8 hours it makes a full turn around the Sun, so that the Sun always rises in the East. Simultaneously, the Moon moves clockwise from the East to the West, and during a day, being at a distance of about 400 thousand km, makes a full turn around the Earth in 24 hours and 50 minutes. The lunar cycle lasts 29 days 12 hours 44 minutes (the synodic period). The closer the Moon is approaching our planet, the stronger is the force of the gravitational field. It is the increasing gravity force between the Moon and the Earth that attracts waters from rivers and oceans. The approaching Moon causes a high tide (this is high water, or increase in water reservoirs level). When the Moon moves away from the Earth, an ebb (or low tide) is observed on the opposite side of the Earth.
Yet another phenomenal paradox among others, scarcely detectable by scientific devices, is the slowdown in the Earth`s motion and the Moon`s distancing away from the Earth by 3.78 cm per year, with simultaneous slowdown in its rotation around axis. This phenomenon gives full scope to the international cooperation of scientists. The problem is how to put an end to such occurrences and to prevent the development of new ones.
To all appearances, the natural balance on the planet Earth is disrupted. First, the increase in the distance between the Earth and the Moon by only 3.78 cm per year in the scale of the Solar system causes the compression of Time, the lack of which is being felt everywhere around. Second, the increase in the planet`s temperature by only 2 Celsius degrees led to the melting of Arctic eternal ice and disappearance of glaciers at the foothills. Third, the slowdown in the Earth`s motion, apparently caused by a decrease in its mass, leads to a slowdown in the Moon`s motion, the weakening of the gravitational field and increase in the number of floods, flowages, and to the rise of sea level. This also has to do with the shift in the Sun`s magnetic poles in the years of maximum solar activity, including the year 2013. When the North magnetic pole conforms to a positive sign, the electromagnetic field lines are directed inwards the Earth, while at the South pole, on the contrary, from inside out.
A flux of elementary particles originating from the Sun deforms the Earth`s magnetic field. The field is being compressed on the day-side, which faces the Sun, while on the opposite side, during the night, it is getting stretched. In the thin upper layer of the Earth atmosphere, below the level of 1,000 km, the solar electromagnetic particles collide with the molecules of oxygen and nitrogen. Their agitation and diffusion lead to sky glow. Such is the nature of pink clouds and the northern lights. The Solar wind caused by the Solar radiation activity affects the state of oxygen, and, through it, affects people . Fourth, supposedly, very aggressive mining of oil, gas and other natural resources nowadays leads to the formation of earth voids, which are not filled immediately, but in the course of centuries only, remaining sometimes nonrenewable at all. Besides, the products of gas and oil used by motor transport do not turn back to earth, but are released into the atmosphere. The share of electric vehicles is still too small, and their cost by far exceeds the price of conventional vehicles.
New scientific hypothesis on cyclicity
The universal character of cyclicity is based on its recurrence and its direct relation to the Earth, the Moon and the Sun. Careful research in the evolution of Mankind and the system of international relations over the seven centuries, from XIV to XXI, will certainly reveal similarities in recurring phenomena and events, despite the differences in their structural qualities. The amazing paradox revealed by scientific research denotes that the forming of a global system of international relations did not start with signing of peace treaty or similar diplomatic document between the countries concerned, but rather with the prerequisites of the upcoming large-scale crises - political, economic, religious, social, which subsequently grew into armed conflicts. Thus, the recurrence in the evolution of Mankind and the formation of the system of international relations with close resemblance to the existing one, are connected with the conquest of Byzantine territories in Minor Asia by Ottoman Empire, particularly under Sultan Orhan (1324-1359), and the new wave of Crusades to Europe and South-West Rus , organized by the Holy Papacy as a coercive and ideological pressure from the West. It was a barbarous terror from the advocates of new religions under the pretext of having revenge upon Christian world for the crucifixion of Jesus 13 centuries down the road.
The foundations of the international affairs were laid in the course of XIV-XVI centuries. Those three centuries were characterized in Europe as the era of feudalism, development of class society and absolute monarchy, advancement in trade, geographical discoveries and colonial conquests. Spain, Holland, France and England moved to the foreground scene. Ancient Rome and Constantinople fell. Byzantine Empire ceased to exist. The Ottoman state, on the contrary, strengthened considerably thanks to the gains in the Middle East. Since the middle of the XV century, several states were formed at the Apennine peninsula, namely, Milan, Venice, Rome, Florence, Genoa and Savoy, with close economic ties between them. With the development of industry, capitalist relations and banks (state and private), New time in history started. China became noticeably developed. The Delhi Sultanate was formed in India. By the middle of the XVI century, Russia turned into a strong centralized state. The era of Renaissance started for the European civilization.
The beginning of the Thirty Years` War in Europe since 1618, including religious wars and the English bourgeois revolution, hastened the end of the existing system of international relations and the formation of the new one, which was later named the Westphalia. On October 24, 1648, in the historic area of Westphalia in the German Empire, the Treaty of Westphalia was signed. This document put an end to the Thirty Years` War of pan-European scale, summarized the centenary sectarian confrontation in Europe, introduced legal basis into the European system of international relations and conditioned their character for several centuries to come. The XVIII century became the "century of trade" replacing the era of wars. However, in the last quarter of the XVIII century, the planet plunged into a crisis situation again. North America has been at war for independence of colonies; it took 14 years (1775-1789) since the beginning of the American Revolution to the election of the first U.S. President. Europe has survived the shock of the French Revolution (1789-1794) and the recurrent partitions of Rzeczpospolita (Poland) in 1793 and 1795. Military clashes between France and Britain took place during 1798 -1799. Between 1798 and 1800, Young American Republic had water battles against French corsairs. Ever since the days of Peter the Great (1682-1725) and Catherine the Great (1762-1796), the Russian Empire used to play a leading role, initially in Europe, then - in world politics.
The Westphalian system came to an end by 1800 with the outbreak of Napoleonic Wars. This was the beginning of a new era in the social and technogenic development of Mankind and a new system of international relations - the Vienna system. Since October 1814, a Congress was held in Vienna, which brought together 216 representatives from all European countries led by the victors over the Napoleon army. The Congress of Vienna strengthened the diplomacy through conferences, or the conference-diplomacy, in the international relations. Its final (General) Act signed on June 9, 1815, contained special articles concerning economic relations between the countries of the European continent . Thereupon, regulations were set on collection of trade duties for crossing land frontiers and navigation through boundaries and international rivers; the principles of free navigation were defined; the annex was designated to ban the (negroes) slave-trade. Innovations introduced to "Vienna Rules" became the standards of international law and were permanently adopted for the diplomatic practice. By the end of the XIX century, the United States of America declared its presence on the world scene.
The Viennese order of international relations lasted a little more than a century, until 1912. It is indisputable fact that for the most of the XIX century the Russian Army has been in military campaigns. Those were the wars in Asia Minor with Iran and Turkey, the Patriotic War of 1812 against Napoleonic France, overseas marches to Europe, the Crimean War, the Russian conquest of the Caucasus, military expeditions to Central Asia and so on. All this has complicated the country`s economic situation considerably, and the existing political antagonisms between Russia and Germany persuaded the Russian Empire to make an alliance with France in 1892-1894 against the Triple Alliance of Germany, Italy and Austria-Hungary. This laid the foundations of the Entente and influenced the entire course of history in the 20th century . In March, 1909, the German Empire launched its ultimatum to Russia: war or consent to annexation, that is, to accept the transition of Bosnia and Herzegovina to Austria-Hungary without convening the international conference on this issue, and facilitate that the conditions of Vienna are accepted by Serbia. In 1912, Bulgaria, Serbia, Greece, Bosnia and Montenegro formed the union against the Ottoman Empire. Balkan Wars (1912-1913) brought Europe to frontal military clash. The outbreak of world war was only a matter of time. As a result of World War I (28 July 1914 - 11 November 1918), which became the threshold between the old and the new diplomacy, some countries, including great empires, disappeared from the political map of the world, while some totally new states emerged. However, the situation was highly unstable, and, for many well-known reasons, military intervention started in the territory of Soviet Russia.
Precisely from 1912, a new global system of international relations began to form, involving a number of small systems, namely:
1. The Versailles-Washington system of Paris Agreement (1919 - 1920) that came into existence in result of World War I to form the League of Nations, but turned to be unstable and did not last long.
2. The Soviet system (the forming of the USSR on December 30, 1922, Moscow).
3. Bretton Woods Monetary System (USA, 1944), appeared on the basis of the Genoese monetary system in 1922.
4. The United Nations (UN) was founded within the period between 1942 and October, 1945.
5. The Yalta-Potsdam system of international relations that consolidated the results of the Second World War (1939 - 1945).
6. The Military system of the Warsaw Treaty Organization (May 14, 1945, Poland).
7. The System of General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade - GATT (1947).
8. The Military system or the North Atlantic Treaty or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization - NATO (Brussels, Belgium, April 4, 1949).
9. The Viennese system of International Relations (Vienna Convention of 1961) to regulate the legal issues of international relations.
10. The Jamaican monetary system (1971 - 1978); introduction of freely convertible currency not linked to the gold standard.
11. The Helsinki system of security in Europe (the final act of the Conference. Helsinki, Finland, August 1, 1975).
12. The system of leaders of the world`s most industrialized countries ("Group of Seven", 1975 - 1977), etc.
This system of international relations was relatively effective until 1982. A year later, it became evident that many of its structural elements were not functioning at all and needed fundamental changes.
The next system that followed - the current system of international relations - corresponds to the large cycle of 42-years from 1982 to 2024. This system has already embraced all major events of international life. Those are:
1. Unimplemented strategic initiative of the US President Ronald Reagan on arms reduction between the USSR and the USA: launched in May, 1982, in the US, however, the placement of cruise missiles and "Pershing-2" in Europe broke off for the negotiations proposed by the Soviet side. Talks were resumed in Geneva in 1985.
2. Reunification of two German states and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.
3. Charter of Paris on ending the "Cold War", signed by all European countries, the Soviet Union, the United States and Canada on November 21, 1990.
4. Dissolution of the Warsaw Treaty organization (July 1, 1991, Poland).
5. The treaty between the USSR and the United States on strategic offensive arms (START-1), concluded in Moscow on July 31, 1991, right before the collapse of the Soviet Union.
6. Belovezhsk Treaty on the dissolution of the USSR and the creation of the Commonwealth of Independent States signed by Yeltsin, Kravchuk and Shushkevich (Brest, Belarus, December 8, 1991).
7. Lisbon Protocol of 23 May, 1992, on the reduction of nuclear arsenals of the US and 4 other nuclear powers, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
8. Agreement on Strategic Arms Reduction (START-2) between Russia and the US from January 3, 1993.
9. The Maastricht Treaty from November 1, 1993, on the establishment of the European Union and the euro currency (Netherlands).
10. Establishment of the World Trade Organization - WTO (1995).
11. The leadership system of the world`s leading industrialized countries (the "Group of Eight", Denver, Colorado, USA, June 1997).
12. The leadership system - "Group of Twenty" (Germany, December 1999).
13. The Treaty on Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction (START-3), which entered into force on 5 February, 2011.
14. The leadership system BRICS (2009 - 2011), etc.
Thus, here is a new scientific hypothesis based on the results of research: The new global system of international relations does not start with signing of a peace treaty defined by its name (Westphalian, Vienna, etc.); it starts at least seven years earlier, when the previous system outlives itself economically and politically, the diplomacy becomes powerless, and the prerequisites for international armed conflict emerge.
The cyclicity in the replacements of the systems of international relations takes place according to the universal series of Leonardo Fibonacci (Italy, XIII century), where each number corresponds to large cycles, which evolve to the contraction, and are followed by a mirror image: 21, 13, 8, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1 - 0 + 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21. The cyclicity period is 14 years, where the waves of rise and fall on a spiral are equal to 7 years. (7 + 7 = 14). According to the new hypothesis of the author on the cyclicity in the international relations, the half-cycle equals approximately to 7 years. There are 7 phases of the Moon in the course of a lunar month between the New Moons. As already described above, the repeatability of the solar calendar is 28 years, i.e. 4 cycles of 7 years each. The Moon and the Sun have permanent impact on the Earth and Society. The latter should be perceived as the state (at the micro level) and as the international community (at the macro level).
The aforesaid is illustrated by the calculations:
1. The period from 1324 to 1618, from the 1st quarter of the XIV century to the beginning of the Westphalian system formation, equals to 294 years. This makes 21 full cycles in the evolution of Mankind and the system of international relations: 14 x 21 = 294.
2. The period from 1618 to 1800, from the beginning of a new stage in the evolution of Mankind to the formation of the Westphalian system, equals to 182 years: 14 x 13 = 182.
3. The period from 1800 to 1912, from the beginning of the next cycle in the evolution of Mankind to the formation of a global Vienna system, equals to 112 years: 14 x 8 = 112.
4. The period from 1912 to 1982, since the beginning of the subsequent stage in the evolution of Mankind to the formation of the Versailles-Washington, and then Viennese system of international relations, equals to 70 years: 14 x 5 = 70.
5. The period from 1982 to 2024, from the appearance of prerequisites for the fall of the "iron curtain" and the formation of the modern Belovezhskaya-Maastricht system to present times: 14 x 3 = 42 years.
The current global system of international relations continues to evolve in the state of crisis.
Thus, the cyclicity in the global system of international relations presented by mathematical operations clearly reflects the Fibonacci series: 21, 13, 8, 5, 3.
1324 - 1618 y/y.: 14 x 21 = 294.
1618 - 1800 y/y.: 14 x 13 = 182.
1800 - 1912 y/y.: 14 x 8 = 112.
1912 - 1982 y/y.: 14 x 5 = 70.
1982 - 2024 y/y.: 14 x 3 = 42.
The completion of the current system of international relations is prognosed for 2024. In the context of the existing structural crisis, the preconditions for the establishment of a new system are already emerging and will continue to manifest themselves with renewed vigor up to 2017, equally in domestic issues (political, social, cultural, religious) of the world countries, as well as in the international relations (political, economic, financial, military, public, etc.). Instabilities have overtaken the Middle East, North Africa and some parts of Asia: Iraq, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan. Inadequate developments in the world politics can lead to large-scale regional wars.
Through earthly rough ways - to the stars
The fact that the space exists for billions of years, finding its paths to evolution, should be perceived more attentively, possibly, with an attempt to build the system of international relations based on the example of the Solar system structure.
The Solar system has its own structural numbers and digits: 7 - (the number of moon phases between the New Moons in a lunar month), 9 - the number of planets, 11 - the solar cycle, 18 - the lunar cycle; 29 - a lunar month, 30 - a "full" month in the lunar-solar calendar. The Solar month cannot be regarded as universal, it does not have fixed number and is represented by four numbers at once: 28, 29, 30, 31.
Let us suppose that the Sun is the major international organization that supplies its energy to the countries all over the world. Until recently, the United Nations has been considered such a structure. Founded on October 24, 1945, the UN lived 5 cycles of the world history, and it will become 70 years old soon. The Millennium Declaration of the United Nations adopted by the General Assembly on 8 September, 2000, envisages summarizing its joint activities exactly in 2015. However, many problems on the planet Earth have not been solved yet. Those are poverty, hunger, compulsory primary education (not to mention compulsory secondary education worldwide), as well as prohibition of child labor, accessibility of health care for everyone, piracy on waters and in the field of intellectual property, production and distribution of drugs, forcible solution of international problems without the sanctions from the United Nations, etc.
Suggestions in the author`s project
There are about 200 countries on the planet today. The time is approaching to create a principally new international organization capable of not only discussing, but also solving the global problems of the world population. Such a structure on the scale of the Earth could well become the World Organization of States (WOS), Всемирная Организация Государств (ВОГ) or Organisation Mondiale des ?tats (OME). At the present historical stage, the states, not separate nations, as before, should represent the foundations and the main organizing elements of the international system. Vast experience and structural elements of the UN should certainly form the basis of the new international structure. Another possible name for the new, contemporary international organization could be the Open World Government (OWG), Открытое Мировое Правительство (ОМП), Gouvernement Mondial Ouvert (GMO).
The contemporary world situation indicates that new Security Council (SC) has to be broader in terms of member states and should have more elaborate approach to the use of veto. Maybe, someday in the future, the use of veto could become a three-step process. For instance:
Stage I - veto is declared. The new international organization ("The World Organization of States") makes adjustments to the suggested version of the regulations taking into account the comments made.
Stage II - when re-considering the issue, one of the states vetoes again. Now, the mentioned state has to develop draft resolution for consideration and adjust it with other members of the Security Council.
Stage III - either the final version of the international document is accepted unanimously or, in case it is vetoed again by one country or a group of countries, the discussion is removed from the agenda at least for 3 months.
The extended structure of the new Security Council could be comprised of 13 countries with veto power (the number stands for 8 well-known major giant planets of the Solar System and 5 dwarf planets: Pluto, Ceres, Eris, Haumea and Makemake ). Each planet will correspond to a concrete state or group of countries, for example:
- Mercury - CHINA;
- Venus - FRANCE (possesses a trophy: a statue of the Venus de Milo is in Louvre);
- Earth and its satellite Moon - RUSSIA representing the states of the Customs Union (Belarus, Kazakhstan and others);
- Mars and its satellites - Great Britain representing Canada, Australia and New Zealand;
- Jupiter and 67 satellites - the United States representing the Organization of American States and Oceania. (It is important and necessary that the international community recognizes the views of all American states on the world events presented by the United States and collected on the basis of democratic principles, expressing the interests of all the countries in the North and South Americas);
- Saturn and 62 satellites - GERMANY (as the political and economic apparatus and the representative of the European Union and Turkey);
- Uranium and 27 satellites - REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA representing the states of Africa and the Middle East. It should be noted that the Arabian Peninsula is the closest extension of the African continent. It is assumed that the League of Arab states and the African Union will develop integrated geopolitical decisions;
- Neptune and 14 satellites - JAPAN representing the countries of Southeast Asia, North and South Korea. An Eastern wisdom says: when neighbors cannot get along, the third party comes to help them out. East is a delicate matter, and Japan is the country of the rising Sun and wisdom; ancient civilization with advanced scientific and educational technologies;
- Pluto and 5 satellites (Hydra, Cerberus, Nyx, Styx, Charon) - INDIA representing Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and Tibet;
- Ceres - Brazil;
- Eris - League of Arab States;
- Haumea - Israel;
- Makemake - Argentina.
Thus, the acting UN Security Council with veto power includes 5 states: Britain, China, Russia, USA and France. The renewed and expanded Security Council of a new international organization could very well include the following states:
1. Argentina.
2. Brazil.
3. Great Britain.
4. Germany.
5. Israel.
6. India.
7. China.
8. League of Arab States.
9. Russia.
10. United States of America.
11. France.
12. Republic of South Africa.
13. Japan.
Aimed at further evolution of Mankind and maintaining international activities on the global level, it would be necessary to create within the frameworks of the unified international organization (the World Organization of States), 30 different international organizations by the number of days in a "full" month in the lunar-solar calendar:
1. International energy organization for atom, oil and gas. [Alternative to IAEA and OPEC]
2. International monetary and investment organization. [Alternative to the US Federal Reserve System and the IMF]
3. International trade organization. [Alternative to WTO]
4. International organization for Industrial and technological development.
5. International organization for agricultural development.
6. International health organization. [Alternative to WHO]
7. International environmental organization. [Alternative to "Greenpeace" - Greenpeace (Green World), Amsterdam, The Netherlands]
8. International organization for demography, migration and population`s employment.
9. International organization for prevention and elimination of emergency situations [Alternative to Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations on the planet scale]
10. International organization for land, water and air transport.
11. International organization for the protection of intellectual property, fight against terrorism, drugs, piracy and organized crime. [Alternative to Roman-Lyon Group within the G8 to combat terrorism and organized crime]
12.The international court of arbitration. [Alternative to International arbitration courts in London and The Hague]
13. The international court of maritime law. [Alternative to the International Tribunal for Law of the Sea in Hamburg]
14. International court of human rights. [Alternative to International Court of Justice in Strasbourg]
15. International criminal court. [Alternative to International Tribunal in The Hague]
16. The international search of offenders. [Alternative to International Police (Interpol) in Lyon]
17. International military organization for the protection of states and co-ordination of military exercises, demonstrations and sales of modern weapons and military equipment. [Alternative to NATO]
18. International organization for space research and exploration.
19. International organization for the study of climate change on the planet.
20. international religious organization.
21. International organization of African countries.
22. International organization of Arab countries.
23. International organization for the Arctic and Antarctic.
24. International organization for Tourism.
25. International organization for Education.
26. International organization for Science.
27. International organization for culture. [Alternative to UNESCO]
28. International organization for informational geopolitics.
29. International sports organization. [Alternative to international committees of sports and Olympic movement]
30. International organization for standardization and ratings.
It should be noted that currently the analogues to many of the listed organizations do not exist over the globe, for instance, the International Organization for Prevention and Elimination of Emergency Situations in the event of natural and anthropogenic disasters, and some other organizations as well. However, the new era that has already approached the planet demonstrates the necessity for their creation.
Here are the proposed locations for these organizations - they will be situated in Russia: Moscow - Sochi - Kazan.
1. MOSCOW - to locate the following International organizations: for space exploration, energy, monetary and investment, trade, cultural, scientific and educational.
2. SOCHI - to be an international center for shaping the legal and the structural forms of the new global system of international relations. This is the city of the Sun in the literal and figurative senses. The direct meaning refers to the sunny climate of the sea shore surrounded by mountains, the figurative meaning refers to the image of the Sun on the city flag. After the Winter Olympic Games of 2014, the city has the necessary infrastructure to accommodate numerous international organizations.
3 KAZAN - to locate the international religious organization, as a city with unique acting religious and cultural complex, which brought together all major religions of the world.
When outlining the new architecture for the global system of international relations, it should be taken into account that the era of dollar and euro serving as international currencies is coming to an end. Between 2015 and 2021, dollar and euro will gradually lose their status of international currencies and will continue to exist in a number of countries as local currencies. To this testifies the cyclicity of the world currencies, which equals to 22 years, or two cycles of a solar century:
1. The Genoese world monetary system existed since 1922.
2. In 1944, the Bretton Woods monetary system (USA) came into existence.
It makes 22 years from 1922 to 1944. (11 x 2 = 22).
3. The 2nd monetary cycle existed from 1944 to 1966. Instead of creating new international currency, after 5 years - the transition period from one cycle to another - a Jamaican currency system was created in 1971 (1971-1978), with the freely convertible currency that was not linked to gold.
4. The 3rd cycle of 22 years (1971-1993) came to an end. In 1993, the European Union and euro were created. Then came another 5 years of the transition phase. Since 1999, euro was introduced to several countries of Western Europe, and, beginning with 2001, it became international currency. However, after 7 years, in 2008, euro, along with dollar, has suffered the strongest global financial and economic crisis.
5. The 4th currency cycle of 22 years has approached. The financial crisis, as compared to its current state, will aggravate even more by 2015 (1993 + 22 = 2015). The United States are already experiencing the strongest monetary and financial crisis. The country`s national debt currently exceeds 17.7 trillion dollars.
Without decisive measures from the world elite in making constructive geopolitical decisions, the global monetary and financial, economic, social and other crises will reach their peak by 2021 (1999 + 22 = 2021). The international community should foresee possible variety of further developments in multi-pronged crisis and make ready for it in advance.
Hereon, the four cycles of the world currency will come to an end. Even long before our era, the figure of 4 was defined by the Pythagoras School of Mathematics as the threshold beyond which the cyclicity comes to total Chaos. Destructivity does not lead to any progress or positive perspectives. This was confirmed by the monetary and banking crisis in Cyprus in March, 2013, as well as by the closure of several European banks that had existed for centuries. Banks are being closed in the United States as well. Europe came to the situation when, in the absence of mineral resources, the latest industrial technologies and partial closure of enterprises, the artificial promotion of euro on the currency, stock and oil markets, as well as in tourist industry, is no longer possible. Euro and petrodollar are not capable of withstanding the load. Dollar empire is coming to its end. Time has come for a new, large cycle in the world currency and the emergence of a new international monetary unit.
In this situation, the only way out for the United States is, if the State Department exerts pressure on the members of IMF, including Russia, to increase the annual inflows to the International Reserve Fund. This assumes the reduction of the state budget on social spending, as well as introduction by 2015 of a new global reserve currency, yuan (to support petrodollar and euro). If China starts buying oil from Iran not for dollars, but for yuans, then the countries of the world in the nearest future are likely to economically support not only America and Europe, but South-East Asia as well. Further membership of the Russian Federation to the IMF in the XXI century, as well as depositing its savings funds in the United States, including the funds from the sale of state energy resources, has long been questionable. It is essential for Russia to get back its gold-value reserves at the right time directing them to the development of the national economy.
Eleven conclusions as like 11 years of the solar century
1. Without the reforms in the system of international relations, all organizations existing over the globe will inevitably lose their current status and become powerless in making decisions on the issues of international life. Increased number of international organizations and their regular forums do not solve the problems and crises on the planet. It is necessary to have the optimum number of international structures with distinct functions, which are coordinated from a single center and could ensure the effective mechanism and balance of the economic and political stability over the world.
2. After creating a new mechanism for international world order, it would be necessary to abolish all other international organizations as ineffective, with the exception of the regional ones.
3. In accord with the innovative scientific theory presented in the current paper, THE FORMATION OF THE NEW GLOBAL SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS HAS ALREADY STARTED, despite the wishes of the leaders of the world powers and other states. This process only needs to be formally completed in compliance with the international law standards.
4. Further developments in the international relations without prompt and rational adjustments are explosively dangerous in the nearest perspective, owing to the existing situations at the Arab-African region, the Israeli-Palestinian sector, also Korean, Pakistani and other problems at the geopolitical level.
5. Russian-American relations are the indicator of a crisis situation in the international life. The cyclicity of their development coincides with the key moments in the evolution of the system of international relations. The downward phase of cyclicity in the Russian-American relations from 2017 to 2024 indicates a crisis situation in the entire system of international relations, including monetary and financial for the same period. Monetary economic diplomacy needs to be reformed.
6. If the world political elite displays inaction or undertakes the imitation of activities just for appearance sake, then the period between 2021 and 2024 will become the most dangerous phase in the international affairs, comparable only to Chaos. This is the final stage of the great cycle which equals to 42 years and consists of three small cycles of 14 years. In 2020, there will be 4 lunar eclipses, which will negatively affect people`s health. The 2024 will be the year of high solar activity, when the sun shifts its magnetic poles again. The 2020 and the 2024 will be the special, leap years.
7. Between 2015 and 2021, DOLLAR and EURO will either cease to remain the world`s reserve currencies, in case oil and gas sales are not conducted in dollars and euro anymore, but will continue to exist in a number of countries as local currencies; or the third currency, YUAN, will come to support dollar and euro.
To avoid the deepening of global financial-economic and social crises, it is appropriate that a new, COMMON world currency is introduced to the planet. In the capacity of such international currency could well serve ГЕОСАГАС - GEOSAGAS, abbreviated сагас - sagas (which means "earthly, wise, acute"), backed by the natural equivalent (gold, silver, natural gas, oil, cotton, coffee) and understandable in all languages of the world; represented by the sign of infinity [?] and green banknotes symbolizing the living and eternal nature. Sagas - is a unique mirror-reflected term: с-а-г-а-с or 19 + 1 + 4 + 1 + 19, where each number corresponds to a letter of the (Russian) alphabet. In total, they make 44, with the final balance of 8 (4 + 4). Eight means grace: energy, stability, order, prosperity, infinity. Transferring the vertical figure 8 to horizontal position gives the infinity sign ? to denote a new, common international monetary unit, as compared to other obsolete currencies: $ (dollar) and EUR (EUR), which brought the system of international relations to global crisis. It is only necessary to separate oil and gas from dollar, euro and yuan, and, in general, from pound sterling.
8. Thorough analysis of national and the world history proves that, without the initiatives in the international life to reform the world order, modern Russia, after serious public disturbances, could once again be drawn into a large-scale military conflict against its will: 27 years or almost 2 cycles of 14 years passed since 1914 (involvement of the Russian Empire into World War I, then February and October revolutions) to 1941 (the beginning of the Great Patriotic War). The period between 1991 (the collapse of the Soviet Union) and 2018 (the significant deepening of the crisis in the global system of international relations and the risk of potential outbreak of World War III, or preparations for it) - also makes 27 years.
9. The project of the new architecture of the world international structure proposed in this article is based on the model of the Solar system and is rather topical at the present stage of the world history, hence it deserves the attention of both Russia`s government representatives and the world community.
10. The new architecture of the world order may well become the Russian (Sochi) system of international relations and could replace the Westphalian, Vienna, Paris, Yalta, Washington, Belovezhsk and Maastricht systems.
11. The current project of a new Sochi system of international relations has great chances for being implemented, in view of the cyclicity code in the system of international relations: Yalta and Sochi are located on the Black (Russian) Sea coast. The Yalta Conference of "The Big Three" (USSR-USA-UK) was held from 4 to 11 February, 1945. Five small cycles in the world history are coming to completion (14 x 5 = 70), and the new cycle will start in 2015.
Further deepening of dollar and euro crisis - the next phase in the cyclical development of the international currency - starts in 2015 and coincides with the beginning of a new cycle in the world`s history, which, with merely declarative statements from the world political elite, is doomed to Chaos for the next 7 years.
To start the discussion of the proposed project at 69th Session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA 69) would mean to avail of the favorable opportunity and dispose of the Time and the Place factors. The third factor - Implementation of the project for significant improvement in the global system of international relations - depends entirely on the political will, activity, the ability for diplomatic agreement and the responsibility degree of the leaders of Russia, the United States and other major powers for further evolution of the world international order and peace on the planet.
Conclusion
In the running period for forming new global system of international relations, Russia could have well taken the lead in improving the existing world order based on the model of the Solar system. Creation of new World Organization of the States (30 comprehensive international organizations, nine countries-members of the Security Council and the sophistication of the veto procedure), as well as the introduction of a unified international currency - geosagas by 2017 - this is one of the constructive approaches and the objective necessity to avoid further deepening of geopolitical and economic crises, with all the ensuing consequences. Combined efforts of all interested parties and the ability to direct international community to the new world order would signify Russia`s return to its true predestination of the great, creative power of the world.
The role of the USA in the perfection of the current architecture of the world order is to adequately understand the high degree of its responsibility for the crisis, in which the international system proved to be. The USA should be most directly involved in progressive developments, without creating obstacles - this is the agenda for all the sober-minded representatives of contemporary civilization.
Литература
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Alexander G. SAVOYSKY,
Doctor of Political Science (Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences), the Expert in Economic Diplomacy, International Relations and the World Economy.
Sail of Hope, Director of International Affairs Department, Representative to the United Nations.
E-mail: asavoysky@gmail.com
